Group fact-sheets

Learning Outcomes and Assessment Criteria

Fact-sheet (3-4 Pages) - Practical Financial Management –

Group member: ………


How to produce a cash flow forecast and apply break-even analysis, including examples from small business


P4.          Produce an annual itemised monthly cash flow forecast showing fixed and variable costs set against income for a specific organisation.

P5.          Explain how breakeven analysis could be applied to an organisational situation.

M5.        Apply appropriate quantitative and analytical techniques to provide an appropriately detailed cash flow forecast and break-even analysis.

D3.         Produce an accurate cash flow forecast and break-even analysis with a critical evaluation of how key financial statements contribute to the successful management of the business.

Seasonality and trends

Trending Analysis

May Va Ltd have conducted a trending analysis to forecast the company’s budget. A trending analysis report discusses the trends that are currently occurring on the market in terms of services or product demands from customers. 

The chart below demonstrates that May Va (Chinese Foods Sales) are fluctuating by (+/-) 17% over the past year.

The trends report reveals that the market is headed up from last years average, as May Va have made budget adjustments to suit / capitalise on the trends of the industry and market by increasing it advertisement allocation. See:
  • Profit & loss spreadsheet
  • Cash Flow forecast 
  • Break Even Chart
The trend report may reveal that the company’s top selling product may fade in popularity over the next year, so executives may alter the budget in terms of product development.

Sales Patterns

Sales patterns are another method used by company owners to forecast the budget for a business. For example, a company’s sales report may reveal that some of the products in the existing product line sell better than others. The products that are not selling well may be costing the business money in terms of productivity and labor fees. If the sales patterns are not improving over the period of several months, executives may use this information to forecast the budget for the business. For example, the budget may improve if the products not currently selling are cut from the product line.

Seasonal Forecasting on Market Demands

Some products or services sell well during seasonal periods. May Va executives' have monitored seasonal sales - see seasonalitiy chart - and use predictions to focus marketing and other resources. Satisfying consumer demands before the product or service becomes a high-demand item is another way of forecasting for a stable budget.

Key seasonal factors are:
  • Natural after Christmas downturn
  • School holidays
  • Autum time adjustment / onset of winter.
All these factors aid judicious use of resources.

Profit and Loss Spreadsheet

May Va's annual itemised monthly Profit & Loss forecast showing fixed and variable costs set against income.


Profit and Loss Forecast (2019)

Simple moving average

The simplest form of a moving average, appropriately known as a simple moving average (SMA), is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values. In other words, a set of numbers, or prices in the case of financial instruments, are added together and then divided by the number of prices in the set. For example, to calculate a basic 10-day moving average on - May Va's Profit & Loss Forecast - you would add up the closing prices from the past 10 days and then divide the result by 10

Time series data Example: Ratio analysis

Realization of the fact that "Time is Money" in business activities, the dynamic decision technologies presented here, have been a necessary tool for applying to a wide range of managerial decisions successfully where time and money are directly related. In making strategic decisions under uncertainty, we all make forecasts. We may not think that we are forecasting, but our choices will be directed by our anticipation of results of our actions or inactions.

Indecision and delays are the parents of failure. This site is intended to help managers and administrators do a better job of anticipating, and hence a better job of managing uncertainty, by using effective forecasting and other predictive techniques.

Cash Flow Forecast

May Va's annual itemised monthly cash flow forecast showing fixed and variable costs set against income. 



Cash-Flow-Forecast (2019)

Simple moving average

The simplest form of a moving average, appropriately known as a simple moving average (SMA), is calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of a given set of values. In other words, a set of numbers, or prices in the case of financial instruments, are added together and then divided by the number of prices in the set. For example, to calculate a basic 10-day moving average on - May Va's Cash-flow-forcast - you would add up the closing prices from the past 10 days and then divide the result by 10

Time series data Example: Ratio analysis

Realization of the fact that "Time is Money" in business activities, the dynamic decision technologies presented here, have been a necessary tool for applying to a wide range of managerial decisions successfully where time and money are directly related. In making strategic decisions under uncertainty, we all make forecasts. We may not think that we are forecasting, but our choices will be directed by our anticipation of results of our actions or inactions.

Indecision and delays are the parents of failure. This site is intended to help managers and administrators do a better job of anticipating, and hence a better job of managing uncertainty, by using effective forecasting and other predictive techniques.

Break Even Analysis

May Va Ltd have applied breakeven analysis to their Home delivery of Chinese Food in the following Microsoft Excel application/s:





Advertising budget

Variance analysis is the quantitative investigation of the difference between actual and planned behavior. This analysis is used to maintain control over a business.

May Va Chinese Food Home delivery sale were dropping off during the certain months of the year - Ref.: Seasonality and trends . The variance in the advertising budget was due to extra cost needed to mainance Break Even Chart Sales.

Fact-Sheet: Bibliography:

References: